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WorthWise™ · by Umbono

Your business case
looks solid.
Will it hold up?

WorthWise™ models what a project is actually worth — accounting for uncertainty, cost variation, and the assumptions you haven't yet questioned. Before you commit the resources, know the odds.

Project Outcome Distribution
10,000 Monte Carlo iterations
EUR 14.2M Expected value
Significant
loss
Below
target
Target
return
Upside
scenario
71% Prob. of success
−EUR 4.1M Downside (P10)
+EUR 38M Upside (P90)
Recommendation: Proceed with revised cost assumptions
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Monte Carlo Simulation engine
Sensitivity Assumption analysis
Scenarios Side-by-side comparison
Decision Clear recommendation

Static analysis in a world that never holds still

See the solution

The standard business case process is built on a single, internally consistent set of assumptions. One cost estimate. One benefit forecast. One timeline. The analysis is static. The future is not.

"The spreadsheet doesn't ask how confident you are in that number — it just multiplies it."

Decision-makers are asked to approve or reject based on a document that shows only one version of what might happen. Risks are listed, but not quantified. Benefits are projected, but not stress-tested. Assumptions are made visible, but never interrogated at scale.

The result is predictable. Projects that looked compelling in the approval pack routinely overrun, underdeliver, or fail entirely — not because the people involved weren't capable, but because the method gave them false precision at exactly the moment they needed honest uncertainty.

This isn't a failure of intent. It's a failure of method.

From inputs to a decision in four steps

WorthWise™ doesn't replace your judgement. It gives your judgement something real to work with.

01

Define the project

Enter your goals, benefit assumptions, cost estimates, and timeline. WorthWise™ handles both financial and non-financial benefit types, including weighted qualitative outcomes.

02

Model the uncertainty

Assign probability ranges to each variable. Define best-case and worst-case boundaries. Capture what you know you don't know — and surface the assumptions you haven't yet named.

03

Run the simulation

WorthWise™ runs thousands of Monte Carlo iterations across your inputs, generating a realistic distribution of outcomes — expected value, probability of success, downside exposure, and the full spread of likely results.

04

Get a recommendation

A clear, executive-ready output: proceed, revise, delay, or stop. Sensitivity analysis shows which assumptions drive the most risk — and what would need to be true for the project to be worth doing.

What a spreadsheet can't tell you

The real expected value

Not the number someone wants to believe — the number that accounts for how these types of projects actually tend to go. Probability-weighted across the full range of plausible outcomes, not anchored to the central estimate.

Where the risk actually lives

Sensitivity analysis surfaces the assumptions that matter most. Stop defending the whole model — focus attention on the variables that could genuinely change the outcome, and direct due diligence accordingly.

Scenario comparison

Model alternative versions of the same project — different scopes, timelines, or funding structures — and compare them on the same probabilistic basis. Make the trade-offs explicit before the decision is made.

Output that withstands scrutiny

Structured, visually clear reports designed for board presentations, investment committees, and senior stakeholder reviews. Every recommendation is traceable to the inputs and the logic that produced it. No black boxes.

Built for decisions that matter

WorthWise™ is used wherever a significant investment needs a rigorous answer before the commitment is made.

Public Sector · Infrastructure

Major programme approval

A public agency evaluating a multi-year infrastructure programme needs to present an investment case that will hold up to oversight scrutiny. WorthWise™ models delivery risk, cost overrun probability, and long-term benefit realisation — replacing a static ROI with a defensible, probabilistic view of value.

Finance · Board Presentation

ERP implementation business case

A CFO needs to take a complex system replacement to the board. Instead of a single five-year forecast, WorthWise™ produces a range of outcomes with clear confidence intervals — giving the board the honest picture rather than the optimistic one.

Strategy · Market Entry

New market opportunity assessment

A business development team is assessing an opportunity with high upside and significant execution risk. WorthWise™ quantifies both — so the decision isn't a choice between optimism and pessimism, but a comparison of two well-specified bets with explicit risk profiles.

Consulting · Portfolio Planning

Investment portfolio prioritisation

A strategy team managing ten competing project proposals for the next planning cycle needs a consistent basis for comparison. WorthWise™ applies the same analytical framework to each proposal — enabling rational prioritisation against a constrained budget.

Analysis tools are common. Good ones are rare.

Most business case tools sit at one of two extremes. Too simple — a template for filling in boxes — or too complex for anyone outside finance to use without a week of training. WorthWise™ sits in neither camp.

It is rigorous enough to satisfy a CFO, accessible enough for a strategy team, and structured enough to produce consistent, comparable output across your organisation.

WorthWise™ is specifically designed to answer one question that most organisations answer poorly: is this project actually worth doing?

It is built and supported by Umbono — a firm with hands-on experience in complex business case development, public investment analysis, and strategic decision-making. The methodology behind the tool reflects real-world practice, not academic abstraction.

Typical approach WorthWise™
Single-point estimates
Probability distributions for every variable
Risk listed, not quantified
Risk modelled and weighted against outcomes
One scenario presented
Full outcome range with confidence intervals
Benefits assumed, not stress-tested
Benefit assumptions interrogated at scale
No recommendation — just a number
Clear proceed / revise / delay / stop guidance
Incomparable across projects
Consistent framework for portfolio comparison

Analysis that stands up to the question "show me how you got there"

WorthWise™ is grounded in established quantitative decision analysis — including Monte Carlo simulation, expected value theory, and sensitivity analysis — applied to the practical realities of organisational decision-making.

Every assumption has a range. Every range produces a distribution. Every distribution is interpretable. The output is not a black box: every recommendation is traceable to the inputs and the logic that produced it.

WorthWise™ is designed to withstand scrutiny from internal audit, investment committees, government oversight bodies, and the plain question every good decision-maker should ask.

Monte Carlo simulation

Thousands of iterations across your input ranges, generating a realistic distribution of outcomes.

Sensitivity analysis

Surfaces which assumptions drive the most variance, so attention goes where it matters.

Probability-weighted outcomes

Benefits and costs weighted by likelihood — not just listed in a best-case column.

Decision recommendation

A clear, qualified recommendation with the reasoning made explicit and traceable.

Stop approving projects on optimism alone

If you commission major projects, approve investment decisions, or evaluate business cases — WorthWise™ will change the quality of those decisions. Not by making them harder, but by making the risk visible before it becomes expensive.

Book a Demo Contact Umbono

WorthWise™ is available as a standalone platform and as part of Umbono's advisory engagements. Introductions are available for organisations considering significant investments.