WorthWise™ models what a project is actually worth — accounting for uncertainty, cost variation, and the assumptions you haven't yet questioned. Before you commit the resources, know the odds.
The standard business case process is built on a single, internally consistent set of assumptions. One cost estimate. One benefit forecast. One timeline. The analysis is static. The future is not.
"The spreadsheet doesn't ask how confident you are in that number — it just multiplies it."
Decision-makers are asked to approve or reject based on a document that shows only one version of what might happen. Risks are listed, but not quantified. Benefits are projected, but not stress-tested. Assumptions are made visible, but never interrogated at scale.
The result is predictable. Projects that looked compelling in the approval pack routinely overrun, underdeliver, or fail entirely — not because the people involved weren't capable, but because the method gave them false precision at exactly the moment they needed honest uncertainty.
This isn't a failure of intent. It's a failure of method.
WorthWise™ doesn't replace your judgement. It gives your judgement something real to work with.
Enter your goals, benefit assumptions, cost estimates, and timeline. WorthWise™ handles both financial and non-financial benefit types, including weighted qualitative outcomes.
Assign probability ranges to each variable. Define best-case and worst-case boundaries. Capture what you know you don't know — and surface the assumptions you haven't yet named.
WorthWise™ runs thousands of Monte Carlo iterations across your inputs, generating a realistic distribution of outcomes — expected value, probability of success, downside exposure, and the full spread of likely results.
A clear, executive-ready output: proceed, revise, delay, or stop. Sensitivity analysis shows which assumptions drive the most risk — and what would need to be true for the project to be worth doing.
Not the number someone wants to believe — the number that accounts for how these types of projects actually tend to go. Probability-weighted across the full range of plausible outcomes, not anchored to the central estimate.
Sensitivity analysis surfaces the assumptions that matter most. Stop defending the whole model — focus attention on the variables that could genuinely change the outcome, and direct due diligence accordingly.
Model alternative versions of the same project — different scopes, timelines, or funding structures — and compare them on the same probabilistic basis. Make the trade-offs explicit before the decision is made.
Structured, visually clear reports designed for board presentations, investment committees, and senior stakeholder reviews. Every recommendation is traceable to the inputs and the logic that produced it. No black boxes.
WorthWise™ is used wherever a significant investment needs a rigorous answer before the commitment is made.
A public agency evaluating a multi-year infrastructure programme needs to present an investment case that will hold up to oversight scrutiny. WorthWise™ models delivery risk, cost overrun probability, and long-term benefit realisation — replacing a static ROI with a defensible, probabilistic view of value.
A CFO needs to take a complex system replacement to the board. Instead of a single five-year forecast, WorthWise™ produces a range of outcomes with clear confidence intervals — giving the board the honest picture rather than the optimistic one.
A business development team is assessing an opportunity with high upside and significant execution risk. WorthWise™ quantifies both — so the decision isn't a choice between optimism and pessimism, but a comparison of two well-specified bets with explicit risk profiles.
A strategy team managing ten competing project proposals for the next planning cycle needs a consistent basis for comparison. WorthWise™ applies the same analytical framework to each proposal — enabling rational prioritisation against a constrained budget.
Most business case tools sit at one of two extremes. Too simple — a template for filling in boxes — or too complex for anyone outside finance to use without a week of training. WorthWise™ sits in neither camp.
It is rigorous enough to satisfy a CFO, accessible enough for a strategy team, and structured enough to produce consistent, comparable output across your organisation.
WorthWise™ is specifically designed to answer one question that most organisations answer poorly: is this project actually worth doing?
It is built and supported by Umbono — a firm with hands-on experience in complex business case development, public investment analysis, and strategic decision-making. The methodology behind the tool reflects real-world practice, not academic abstraction.
WorthWise™ is grounded in established quantitative decision analysis — including Monte Carlo simulation, expected value theory, and sensitivity analysis — applied to the practical realities of organisational decision-making.
Every assumption has a range. Every range produces a distribution. Every distribution is interpretable. The output is not a black box: every recommendation is traceable to the inputs and the logic that produced it.
WorthWise™ is designed to withstand scrutiny from internal audit, investment committees, government oversight bodies, and the plain question every good decision-maker should ask.
Thousands of iterations across your input ranges, generating a realistic distribution of outcomes.
Surfaces which assumptions drive the most variance, so attention goes where it matters.
Benefits and costs weighted by likelihood — not just listed in a best-case column.
A clear, qualified recommendation with the reasoning made explicit and traceable.
If you commission major projects, approve investment decisions, or evaluate business cases — WorthWise™ will change the quality of those decisions. Not by making them harder, but by making the risk visible before it becomes expensive.
WorthWise™ is available as a standalone platform and as part of Umbono's advisory engagements. Introductions are available for organisations considering significant investments.